Voter power in Carmarthen East & Dinefwr


Constituency marginality

Fairly safe

In Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, one person does not really have one vote, they have the equivalent of 0.555 votes.

The power of voters in this constituency is based on the probability of the seat changing hands and its size.

While you might think that every vote counts equally, where you live in the UK has a huge effect on your power to influence the election.

How does Carmarthen East & Dinefwr compare?

Voters in Carmarthen East & Dinefwr have 1.82x more voting power than the UK average.

Average UK voter power


The average UK voter only has the power of 0.305 votes. This is because most of us live in safe seats, where the outcome is pretty much certain regardless of how we vote.

Carmarthen East & Dinefwr ranks #131 out of 650 constituencies in the Voter Power Index.

UK constituency marginality

We can be almost certain that 60% of seats will NOT change hands in the general election (very safe or ultra safe seats).

Further information


The more times a seat changes hands, the more marginal it is deemed to be.

  • 1997 Lab
  • 2001 PC
  • 2005 PC
  • 2010 PC

Constituency size


This constituency is smaller than average, which means a voter here is more likely to affect the national result.

Number of voters: 55,164

Average constituency: 69,718

2010 election data

64% of votes discarded

64.40% of those who voted in Carmarthen East & Dinefwr in 2010 did not vote for the winning candidate. These votes count for nothing in the First Past the Post system.

2010 General Election result

2010 General Election result in Carmarthen East & Dinefwr

Winner takes all

2010 General Election result in Carmarthen East & Dinefwr

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The Voter Power Index is based on research by NEF (the New Economics Foundation)

If the UK had a proportional voting system:

  • We would no longer have safe seats
  • The power of votes would be much more equal
  • All areas of the UK would have equal power to decide the outcome of the election
  • Politicians would not be able to win an election by tailoring all their policies to a narrow section of the population
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